Tomorrow Forecast
At present, my country’s industrial production remains vigorous. The macro data is positive. The black series futures rebounded strongly. Coupled with the impact of the rising billet end, the market is still strong. The low-season traders are cautious in ordering. After the increase, the market trading atmosphere is light and the merchants have a strong mentality. Wait and see, the downstream sentiment is general, the upstream price rises and reluctant to sell, the rise and fall continue to game, considering the strong cost side, it is expected that the steel price will continue to rise tomorrow.
1. The influencing factors are as follows
1. China Hong Kong Association: The shortage of containers has not been alleviated
According to the China Ports Association, the latest issue of “Port Production Operation Monitoring and Analysis (December 1st to December 10th)” (hereinafter referred to as “Analysis”) shows that in early December, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports increased year-on-year 1.7%, of which foreign trade cargo throughput dropped by 1.8% year-on-year; Yangtze River port production continued to maintain a good momentum, and the hub port throughput increased by 12.3% year-on-year.
2. The cumulative growth rate of fiscal expenditures in the first 11 months turned positive
Statistics from the Ministry of Finance show that in the first 11 months, the cumulative growth rate of general public budget expenditures across the country was 0.7%, which is the first time since this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that as of the end of November, the direct funding has been issued and it will study the establishment of a normalized fiscal direct funding mechanism. The scale of direct funding in 2021 will be higher than this year.
3. The central bank’s reverse repurchase has a net return of 10 billion yuan today
The central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today. As 20 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today, a net return of 10 billion yuan was realized on that day.
Second, the spot market
Construction steel: rising
The raw material end rose strongly, the market will not be adjusted for the time being, the market sentiment is not good, the trading atmosphere is quiet, and the transaction is weak. Insufficient local demand, low willingness of merchants to adjust prices, cautious downstream operations, and strong wait-and-see sentiment for buying as you use it, considering the strong price increase of steel mills, it is expected that building materials prices may become stronger tomorrow.
Strip steel: rising
At present, low supply and low inventory are good for support, but due to the weakening of downstream product demand, the overall market transaction is affected to a certain extent. With the double boost of the high level of the snail and the acceptable upstream strip steel transaction, low-price resources are driven It has shown a broad rise, but after a sharp rise, only a few can be achieved. Most manufacturers have slow shipments. It is expected that the strip steel prices will continue to rise tomorrow.
Profile: Steady and high
Future snails are boosted by strong shocks, merchants have a positive attitude, and the quotations are relatively strong. Only a few low-level resources can be traded. The overall situation is still average. During the low season of the steel market, downstream users are not willing to stock up in large quantities, but the bottom of the market is supported , Industrial production maintains a vigorous trend, and it is expected that tomorrow’s profile prices will be consolidated.
Pipe: the main steady rise
The raw material has strong support, and it will rise another 50 yuan today. Downstream customers have a strong desire to drop. However, the merchants are not shipping smoothly, their profits are compressed, and their willingness to follow the rise is strong. The market may stabilize and improve.
Third, the raw material market
Iron ore: small rise
At present, the spot market price is stable and strong, and merchants are still looking forward to rising. Coupled with the rising cost of pig iron, pushing iron prices upwards, the current procurement rhythm of steel companies has slowed down, transactions are stalemate, environmental protection restrictions in some areas of Shanxi, and blast furnace demand The iron ore market is expected to run steadily and strongly tomorrow.
Scrap steel: stable and individual rises and falls
Future snails have turned red, market confidence has increased, traders are shipping actively, some steel mills have increased their arrivals, and future snails have been operating in shocks. As the weather turns cold, market downstream demand has weakened, but the shortage of scrap resources supports scrap prices. The demand for scrap steel remains unchanged, and it is expected that the scrap price may rise steadily tomorrow.
Coke: rising
The ninth round of increase of 50% basically landed. After the increase, coking enterprises’ orders and shipments were good. Hebei and Shanxi coking plants were still working on capacity reduction. The output continued to decline. The tight coke supply situation was further strengthened. Coking enterprises generally had low inventories. The demand for factory replenishment is high. In terms of ports, the situation in the port is general, and some coke is exported. Businesses are optimistic. It is expected that the price of coke may be strong tomorrow.
Pig iron: steady increase
The ninth round of coke increase has basically landed. The ore continues to strengthen, and the cost of pig iron continues to rise, pushing iron prices upward. At present, the profit of iron plants is almost at a loss. In addition to the tight pig iron resources in various regions, most iron plants maintain negative inventories and offer prices Relatively chaotic, some iron plants are reluctant to sell at high prices. The current high-priced shipments are generally high, but the cost support is strong, and some iron plants are expected to suspend production in the later period. The businessmen are still bullish, and pig iron is expected to run up tomorrow.